ESTER: Estimation of the prehistoric population of Eurasia based on a large number of records

Martin Hinz and Joe Roe

Paper presented at World Neolithic Congress, Şanlıurfa, 4–8th November 2024, 2024.

Abstract

Understanding population trends over the past 12,000 years is crucial for unraveling the complexities of social development. Population size influences social structures, exchange systems, environmental interactions, cultural transmission, and societal resilience. Current global population figures, derived since the 1970s, are educated guesses based on limited data and deductive methods, hindering accurate prehistoric assessments. Regional studies, emerging data sources, and innovative methods offer new possibilities, exemplified by the XRONOS database, a significant contribution from our research group.

The ESTER project employs hierarchical Bayesian modeling and data assimilation techniques to integrate heterogeneous big data into population development models. This method evaluates data reliability, compensates for missing information, and facilitates regionalized estimates balancing varying data availability. Focused on Europe and Western Asia from 12,000 to 2,000 BP, the project aims to provide the first big-data-based regionalized population estimate.

The ESTER project introduces a novel methodology, offering valid bases for investigating cultural and social configurations dependent on population numbers. It provides confidence intervals, 50-year temporal resolution, and absolute population numbers. These results can test causal relationships with climatic changes and volcanic eruptions. Beyond archaeology, they offer indicators for human impact and land use, aiding various palaeosciences in investigating human-environment relationships with unprecedented quality and reliability, fostering awareness of our past and its connection to ongoing global change.

In this presentation we will introduce the approach and first results of a pilot study with ESTER’s methodology and present the approaches and implementation of the project to the research community.